Early Interest: Behavior Shifts Earlier

The first signal comes from traffic and transaction data. Black Friday 2025 doesn’t spike suddenly, it builds gradually, weeks ahead.

Comparisons reveal how much user behavior has changed:

• Compared to the first week of November 2024: +81% sessions and +332% transactions during Black Friday week
• Compared to the first week of November 2025: +70% sessions and +344% transactions during Black Friday week

These data points show that users arrive at the promotional period more prepared. Transactions grow more than last year, while sessions grow less, meaning users browse with clearer purchase intent.

Add-to-Cart to Purchase Rate: Users Come Back to Complete Their Order

The ratio between add-to-cart and purchases stays stable at 8% for most of November. Then something happens: during Black Week, it rises to 11%.

The strategic reading is clear: many users had already identified and saved products in the weeks leading up. Black Week doesn’t necessarily generate new intentions, it unlocks planned purchases. The cart becomes a place of intentional waiting: a pre-decision space that finds its moment of conversion on Black Friday.

Black Friday’s Effect Differs by Sector

There is no single Black Friday pattern. The impact varies by industry. Comparing the last week of November with the first, significant differences emerge:

• Beauty: +50% sessions with purchases quadrupled
• Fashion: +60% sessions, +200% transactions
• Retail: +50% traffic, +250% purchases
• Sports: +30% sessions, +175% products purchased
  

Beauty and Retail respond very strongly to promotions, Fashion users explore more but convert more thoughtfully, and Sports grows at a slower but meaningful rate.

Conversion Rate: Early Activators Win

Conversion Rate (CR) shows the biggest shift in 2025. With similar session volumes:

• First two weeks of November: CR ~3% below 2024
• Week before Black Friday: +4.5% vs 2024
• Black Week: +7.5% vs 2024

But the real differentiator is the timing of the strategy. Two very different approaches deliver very different results:

• Brands that activate early (discounts, conversion campaigns, lead gen):
  +8% CR in the week before Black Friday
  +10% during Black Week
• Brands that discount only during Black Week:
  +2.5% CR in the third week of November
  +6.5% during BF

The signal is strong: brands waiting for the “perfect moment” lose ground to those who build the funnel early.

Black Friday 2025: What Do These Data Tell Us?

User behavior is shifting in three key ways:

• They act earlier: Exploration begins weeks before the promotion, and purchases happen only once the discount is live.
• They buy less during the discovery phase: Traffic grows, but early-November CR drops: it’s an observation period.
• They reward early movers: Brands activating early, whether through promo, conversion campaigns, or lead gen, see better performance across traffic, transactions, and CR.

Black Friday is no longer a one-week event: it’s a season of planned purchasing. Competition no longer happens only in the last days of November, but in how brands prepare the ground well before the promotional window opens.